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Compare Stocks › AAPL vs LLY

Apple Inc. (AAPL) vs Eli Lilly and Company (LLY): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-08-03, AAPL is overvalued at $309, with a DCF intrinsic value of $165 and a margin of safety of -87%. LLY is undervalued at $1149, with an intrinsic value of $1529604356065 and a margin of safety of 100%. Of the two, LLY has the wider margin of safety.

AAPL
Apple Inc.
$308.91
VS
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$1148.84

Rewards

AAPL
  • ★Apple Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Apple Inc. scores 96/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
LLY
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

AAPL
  • ⚠FCF yield of 2.4% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
  • ⚠PEG ratio of 2.46 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $87.1M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
LLY
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $18.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

Key Valuation Metrics

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AAPL
LLY
Valuation
$107.72B
Free Cash Flow
$9.16B
2.37%
FCF Yield
N/A
35.47
Trailing P/E
40.81
32.48
Forward P/E
25.48
Quality & Moat
62.71%
ROIC
37.80%
148.75%
ROE
107.46%
48.65%
Gross Margin
82.83%
2.46
PEG Ratio
1.61
Balance Sheet Safety
0.20
Net Debt / Equity
1.22
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
0.13
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.05
0.35%
Dividend Yield
0.60%
AAPL: 6Ties: 1LLY: 4
AAPLLLY

Historical Fundamentals

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AAPL

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

LLY

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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AAPL
$7.57
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$257.06B
Δ Market Cap
+$1.94T
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
LLY
$0.00
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Value Destroyer
Σ Retained
$22.34B
Δ Market Cap
+$708.84
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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AAPL
87.3% Overvalued
Price is 87.3% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $308.91
Fair Value: $164.95
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
LLY
100.0% Margin of Safety
Price is 100.0% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $1148.84
Fair Value: $1529604356065.14
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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AAPL

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $309?

+17.4%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +17.9%

The market implies +17.4% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +17.9%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

LLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1149?

-30.0%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies -15.1%

The market implies -30.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding -15.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

Economic Moat Score

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AAPL
96/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
LLY
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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AAPL
-2.29
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
LLY
-1.83
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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AAPL
Insiders 1.6%Institutions 65.7%Retail & Other 32.6%
No. of Institutional Holders7,659
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
LLY
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.1%Retail & Other 14.8%
No. of Institutional Holders5,685
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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AAPL
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
LLY
0
Buys (3M)
8
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $4.54M
MONTARCE LUCAS E
Chief Financial Officer
$494,627
@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
ALVAREZ RALPH
Director
$500,473
@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
Officer
$647,360
@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
Director
$75,018
@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
FYRWALD J. ERIK
Director
$1.01M
@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
RICKS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
$1.05M
@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
Officer
$634,405
@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
JACKSON JAMERE
Director
$127,913
@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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AAPL
4
Sells (3M)
14
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $199.00M
BORDERS BEN
Officer
$34,236
@ $295.14 · 2026-06-16
LEVINSON ARTHUR D
Director
$15.55M
@ $311.02 · 2026-05-27
BORDERS BEN
Officer
$369,460
@ $290.00 · 2026-05-08
LEVINSON ARTHUR D
Director
$71.19M
@ $284.76 · 2026-05-06
PAREKH KEVAN
Chief Financial Officer
$421,850
@ $275.00 · 2026-04-23
O'BRIEN DEIRDRE
Officer
$7.66M
@ $255.35 · 2026-04-02
COOK TIMOTHY D
Chief Executive Officer
$16.51M
@ $254.23 · 2026-04-02
KONDO CHRISTOPHER
Officer
$1.02M
@ $271.23 · 2025-11-07
PAREKH KEVAN
Chief Financial Officer
$1.04M
@ $247.39 · 2025-10-16
O'BRIEN DEIRDRE
Officer
$11.07M
@ $257.39 · 2025-10-02
ADAMS KATHERINE L
General Counsel
$12.10M
@ $256.79 · 2025-10-02
COOK TIMOTHY D
Chief Executive Officer
$33.38M
@ $256.81 · 2025-10-02
LEVINSON ARTHUR D
Director
$20.89M
@ $232.07 · 2025-08-28
O'BRIEN DEIRDRE
Officer
$7.77M
@ $223.20 · 2025-08-08
KONDO CHRISTOPHER
Officer
$933,955
@ $208.19 · 2025-05-12
PAREKH KEVAN
Chief Financial Officer
$941,420
@ $206.00 · 2025-04-23
WILLIAMS JEFFREY E
Chief Operating Officer
$7.95M
@ $224.01 · 2025-04-02
ADAMS KATHERINE L
General Counsel
$8.68M
@ $223.67 · 2025-04-02
COOK TIMOTHY D
Chief Executive Officer
$24.18M
@ $223.65 · 2025-04-02
LEVINSON ARTHUR D
Director
$343,147
@ $226.35 · 2025-02-03
LEVINSON ARTHUR D
Director
$45.46M
@ $227.32 · 2024-11-19
KONDO CHRISTOPHER
Officer
$945,233
@ $228.87 · 2024-11-18
MAESTRI LUCA
Chief Financial Officer
$13.43M
@ $226.52 · 2024-10-04
O'BRIEN DEIRDRE
Officer
$13.84M
@ $226.87 · 2024-10-02
WILLIAMS JEFFREY E
Chief Operating Officer
$13.55M
@ $226.86 · 2024-10-02
ADAMS KATHERINE L
General Counsel
$13.80M
@ $226.20 · 2024-10-02
COOK TIMOTHY D
Chief Executive Officer
$50.28M
@ $224.46 · 2024-10-02
KONDO CHRISTOPHER
Officer
$1.96M
@ $225.00 · 2024-08-15
KONDO CHRISTOPHER
Officer
$1.12M
@ $216.50 · 2024-08-09
ADAMS KATHERINE L
General Counsel
$20.64M
@ $206.44 · 2024-08-05
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
LLY
2
Sells (3M)
40
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $3.63B
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$2.88M
@ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$15.75M
@ $995.36 · 2026-05-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$322.38M
@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$1.51M
@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.90M
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$2.85M
@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260,409
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.08M
@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$17.34M
@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$152.06M
@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$111.50M
@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.07M
@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$176.10M
@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$62.31M
@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$10.19M
@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$183.80M
@ $1030.87 · 2025-11-14
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$1.01M
@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.02M
@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$308.41M
@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$279.35M
@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$16.41M
@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$167.09M
@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$38.47M
@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$479,038
@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$266.65M
@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260.17M
@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.16M
@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$9.04M
@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.23M
@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$22.72M
@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$137.04M
@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.22M
@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$92.50M
@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$107.36M
@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$177.29M
@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.79M
@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$18.06M
@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$81.53M
@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$734,930
@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$783,762
@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$225.42M
@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$716,410
@ $716.41 · 2025-05-27
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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AAPL
FearGreed
😐Neutral(56/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
LLY
FearGreed
😐Neutral(59/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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AAPL
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (56)
LLY
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (59)
View AAPL Full AnalysisView LLY Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: AAPL vs LLY

Is Apple Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, LLY trades at a 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1529604356065 vs. price $1149), compared to AAPL's -87.3% margin of safety (intrinsic $165 vs. $309).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Apple Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

AAPL scores 96/100 (Wide moat), while LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Eli Lilly and Company in financial distress?▼

LLY's Altman Z-Score of 2.0 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. AAPL scores 10.7 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Apple Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

AAPL earns 62.7% ROIC versus LLY's 37.8%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Apple Inc.'s or Eli Lilly and Company's?▼

AAPL's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to LLY's 64/100 (Safe). AAPL has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.