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Apple Inc. (AAPL) vs International Paper Company (IP): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-08-03, AAPL is overvalued at $309, with a DCF intrinsic value of $165 and a margin of safety of -87%. IP is undervalued at $41, with an intrinsic value of $124527309897 and a margin of safety of 100%. Of the two, IP has the wider margin of safety.

AAPL
Apple Inc.
$308.91
VS
IP
International Paper Company
$40.83

Rewards

AAPL
  • ★Apple Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Apple Inc. scores 96/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
IP

    Risks

    AAPL
    • ⚠FCF yield of 2.4% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
    • ⚠PEG ratio of 2.46 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
    • ⚠Insiders have sold $87.1M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
    IP
    • ⚠ROIC has declined by 9.7 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
    • ⚠International Paper Company scores only 17/100 on the Economic Moat Score, suggesting limited durable competitive advantages.
    • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.87 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.

    Key Valuation Metrics

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    AAPL
    IP
    Valuation
    $107.72B
    Free Cash Flow
    $1.76B
    2.37%
    FCF Yield
    N/A
    35.47
    Trailing P/E
    N/A
    32.48
    Forward P/E
    13.89
    Quality & Moat
    62.71%
    ROIC
    1.71%
    148.75%
    ROE
    -16.48%
    48.65%
    Gross Margin
    29.61%
    2.46
    PEG Ratio
    1.58
    Balance Sheet Safety
    0.20
    Net Debt / Equity
    0.62
    N/A
    Interest Coverage
    N/A
    0.13
    Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.34
    0.35%
    Dividend Yield
    4.53%
    AAPL: 6Ties: 1IP: 3
    AAPLIP

    Historical Fundamentals

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    AAPL

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    IP

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    $1 Retained Earnings Test

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    AAPL
    $7.57
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Exceptional Value Creator
    Σ Retained
    $257.06B
    Δ Market Cap
    +$1.94T
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
    IP
    N/A
    Net losses over 3 years — test not applicable
    Company had negative cumulative retained earnings
    Σ Retained
    $-4.93B
    Δ Market Cap
    +$4.76
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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    AAPL
    87.3% Overvalued
    Price is 87.3% above estimated fair value
    Current Price: $308.91
    Fair Value: $164.95
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued
    IP
    100.0% Margin of Safety
    Price is 100.0% below estimated fair value
    Current Price: $40.83
    Fair Value: $124527309897.42
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued

    Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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    AAPL

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $309?

    +17.4%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies +17.9%

    The market implies +17.4% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

    Standard FCF implies a demanding +17.9%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

    IP

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $41?

    -11.8%
    Market-Implied FCF Growth Rate

    Market roughly matching historical growth — reasonable.

    Economic Moat Score

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    AAPL
    96/100
    Wide Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
    IP
    17/100
    No Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    No durable moat detected, though reinvestment efficiency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

    Forensic Accounting

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    AAPL
    -2.29
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
    IP
    -2.75
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Ownership Breakdown

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    AAPL
    Insiders 1.6%Institutions 65.7%Retail & Other 32.6%
    No. of Institutional Holders7,659
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
    IP
    Insiders 0.2%Institutions 99.5%Retail & Other 0.2%
    No. of Institutional Holders1,181
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    Insider Buying Activity

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    AAPL
    0
    Buys (3M)
    0
    Buys (12M)
    No open market insider purchases found.
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
    IP
    0
    Buys (3M)
    4
    Buys (12M)
    Total value (12M): $4.32M
    TOZIER SCOTT A
    Director
    $313,009
    @ $31.30 · 2026-05-01
    GUSTAFSSON PER ANDERS
    Director
    $1.00M
    @ $38.33 · 2026-03-12
    SILVERNAIL ANDREW K.
    Chief Executive Officer
    $2.00M
    @ $39.98 · 2026-01-30
    CONNOR CHRISTOPHER M
    Director
    $1.01M
    @ $40.37 · 2026-01-30
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

    Insider Selling Activity

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    AAPL
    4
    Sells (3M)
    14
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $199.00M
    BORDERS BEN
    Officer
    $34,236
    @ $295.14 · 2026-06-16
    LEVINSON ARTHUR D
    Director
    $15.55M
    @ $311.02 · 2026-05-27
    BORDERS BEN
    Officer
    $369,460
    @ $290.00 · 2026-05-08
    LEVINSON ARTHUR D
    Director
    $71.19M
    @ $284.76 · 2026-05-06
    PAREKH KEVAN
    Chief Financial Officer
    $421,850
    @ $275.00 · 2026-04-23
    O'BRIEN DEIRDRE
    Officer
    $7.66M
    @ $255.35 · 2026-04-02
    COOK TIMOTHY D
    Chief Executive Officer
    $16.51M
    @ $254.23 · 2026-04-02
    KONDO CHRISTOPHER
    Officer
    $1.02M
    @ $271.23 · 2025-11-07
    PAREKH KEVAN
    Chief Financial Officer
    $1.04M
    @ $247.39 · 2025-10-16
    O'BRIEN DEIRDRE
    Officer
    $11.07M
    @ $257.39 · 2025-10-02
    ADAMS KATHERINE L
    General Counsel
    $12.10M
    @ $256.79 · 2025-10-02
    COOK TIMOTHY D
    Chief Executive Officer
    $33.38M
    @ $256.81 · 2025-10-02
    LEVINSON ARTHUR D
    Director
    $20.89M
    @ $232.07 · 2025-08-28
    O'BRIEN DEIRDRE
    Officer
    $7.77M
    @ $223.20 · 2025-08-08
    KONDO CHRISTOPHER
    Officer
    $933,955
    @ $208.19 · 2025-05-12
    PAREKH KEVAN
    Chief Financial Officer
    $941,420
    @ $206.00 · 2025-04-23
    WILLIAMS JEFFREY E
    Chief Operating Officer
    $7.95M
    @ $224.01 · 2025-04-02
    ADAMS KATHERINE L
    General Counsel
    $8.68M
    @ $223.67 · 2025-04-02
    COOK TIMOTHY D
    Chief Executive Officer
    $24.18M
    @ $223.65 · 2025-04-02
    LEVINSON ARTHUR D
    Director
    $343,147
    @ $226.35 · 2025-02-03
    LEVINSON ARTHUR D
    Director
    $45.46M
    @ $227.32 · 2024-11-19
    KONDO CHRISTOPHER
    Officer
    $945,233
    @ $228.87 · 2024-11-18
    MAESTRI LUCA
    Chief Financial Officer
    $13.43M
    @ $226.52 · 2024-10-04
    O'BRIEN DEIRDRE
    Officer
    $13.84M
    @ $226.87 · 2024-10-02
    WILLIAMS JEFFREY E
    Chief Operating Officer
    $13.55M
    @ $226.86 · 2024-10-02
    ADAMS KATHERINE L
    General Counsel
    $13.80M
    @ $226.20 · 2024-10-02
    COOK TIMOTHY D
    Chief Executive Officer
    $50.28M
    @ $224.46 · 2024-10-02
    KONDO CHRISTOPHER
    Officer
    $1.96M
    @ $225.00 · 2024-08-15
    KONDO CHRISTOPHER
    Officer
    $1.12M
    @ $216.50 · 2024-08-09
    ADAMS KATHERINE L
    General Counsel
    $20.64M
    @ $206.44 · 2024-08-05
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
    IP
    0
    Sells (3M)
    1
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $409,815
    SAAB JOSEPH R
    General Counsel
    $409,815
    @ $45.53 · 2025-09-16
    GOUGHNOUR HOLLY G
    Officer
    $336,344
    @ $44.85 · 2025-05-05
    SULLIVAN KATHRYN D.
    Director
    $35,034
    @ $58.39 · 2024-11-29
    SULLIVAN KATHRYN D.
    Director
    $33,714
    @ $56.19 · 2024-11-15
    SULLIVAN KATHRYN D.
    Director
    $32,100
    @ $53.50 · 2024-10-31
    SULLIVAN KATHRYN D.
    Director
    $28,848
    @ $48.08 · 2024-10-15
    SULLIVAN KATHRYN D.
    Director
    $29,208
    @ $48.68 · 2024-09-30
    SULLIVAN KATHRYN D.
    Director
    $29,688
    @ $49.48 · 2024-09-16
    SAAB JOSEPH R
    General Counsel
    $115,412
    @ $47.30 · 2024-09-12
    GOUGHNOUR HOLLY G
    Officer
    $236,100
    @ $47.22 · 2024-09-06
    SULLIVAN KATHRYN D.
    Director
    $28,740
    @ $47.90 · 2024-08-30
    ELLIS CLAYTON R
    Officer
    $439,470
    @ $48.83 · 2024-08-28
    SULLIVAN KATHRYN D.
    Director
    $27,660
    @ $46.10 · 2024-08-15
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

    🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

    Learn more →
    AAPL
    FearGreed
    😐Neutral(56/100)

    "Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
    IP
    FearGreed
    😐Neutral(43/100)

    "Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    ⚖️ Buffett Signal

    Learn more →
    AAPL
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (56)
    IP
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (43)
    View AAPL Full AnalysisView IP Full Analysis

    Frequently Asked Questions: AAPL vs IP

    Is Apple Inc. or International Paper Company more undervalued in 2026?▼

    Based on our discounted cash flow model, IP trades at a 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $124527309897 vs. price $41), compared to AAPL's -87.3% margin of safety (intrinsic $165 vs. $309).

    Which stock has a wider economic moat, Apple Inc. or International Paper Company?▼

    AAPL scores 96/100 (Wide moat), while IP scores 17/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

    Is International Paper Company in financial distress?▼

    IP's Altman Z-Score of 0.9 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. AAPL scores 10.7 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

    Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Apple Inc. or International Paper Company?▼

    AAPL earns 62.7% ROIC versus IP's 1.7%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

    Which dividend is safer, Apple Inc.'s or International Paper Company's?▼

    AAPL's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to IP's 56/100 (Borderline). AAPL has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.

    AAPL vs IP: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io